PA Beacon
World Cup Money Flows世界杯资金观察

PA Beacon World Cup Money Flows

PA Beacon 世界杯资金观察

Tracking pre-match money flows across 20 completed World Cup group-stage matches.Pre-match BUY direction is treated as the prediction signal; SELL flow is reviewed separately.

追踪已结束 20 场世界杯小组赛的赛前资金流向。以开赛前买入方向衡量市场判断,卖出交易作为资金流动单独观察。

Method note: this page is based on public prediction-market trade data. Amounts, hit rates and PnL are analytical estimates, not betting or investment advice.
数据说明:本页基于公开预测市场交易数据整理,金额、命中率与盈亏均为分析口径估算,不构成投注或投资建议。
Completed Matches已结束比赛
20
Pre-Match Buy Amount赛前买入金额
$89.55M
Correct Buy Amount赛前买对金额
$43.45M
Amount-Weighted Hit Rate金额加权命中率
48.5%

Methodology

This page treats pre-match BUY direction as a market prediction signal: if the purchased Yes/No outcome matches the final resolution, it is counted as correct; otherwise it is counted as wrong.

SELL trades more often reflect profit-taking, stop-losses, position reductions or inventory management. They are not treated as clean new reverse predictions in the pre-match hit-rate calculations.

Live and post-kickoff trades are influenced by real-time score, odds movement and settlement proximity. They are reviewed as in-match flow, not as evidence of pre-match prediction quality.

Completed Match Results

Team ATeam BScoreResultTotal GoalsOver 2.5Over 3.5Both ScoredResult Source
MexicoSouth Africa2-0Mexico2NoNoNoESPN schedule/results
Korea RepublicCzechia2-1Korea Republic3YesNoYesESPN schedule/results
CanadaBosnia1-1Draw2NoNoYesESPN schedule/results
United StatesParaguay4-1United States5YesYesYesESPN schedule/results
QatarSwitzerland1-1Draw2NoNoYesESPN/Sports Yahoo/Bleacher Report
BrazilMorocco1-1Draw2NoNoYesESPN/Sports Yahoo/Bleacher Report
HaitiScotland0-1Scotland1NoNoNoESPN/Bleacher Report
AustraliaTurkiye2-0Australia2NoNoNoSBS/Bleacher Report
GermanyCuraçao7-1Germany8YesYesYesFIFA/Guardian/Fox wrap
NetherlandsJapan2-2Draw4YesYesYesFox/SBNation summaries
Côte d'IvoireEcuador1-0Côte d'Ivoire1NoNoNoFox/SBNation summaries
SwedenTunisia5-1Sweden6YesYesYesFox/SBNation summaries
SpainCabo Verde0-0Draw0NoNoNoESPN/SBS/Al Jazeera live blog
BelgiumEgypt1-1Draw2NoNoYesESPN/SBS/Guardian
Saudi ArabiaUruguay1-1Draw2NoNoYesESPN/SBS
IR IranNew Zealand2-2Draw4YesYesYesESPN/SBS
FranceSenegal3-1France4YesYesYesESPN/Guardian
IraqNorway1-4Norway5YesYesYesESPN/Guardian
ArgentinaAlgeria3-0Argentina3YesNoNoGuardian/NBC Sports
AustriaJordan3-1Austria4YesYesYesABC/Fox Sports/Guardian

Big-Money Accuracy Overview

MatchScoreResultTotal GoalsPre-Match Buy GroupsPre-Match Buy AmountCorrect GroupsCorrect AmountAmount Hit RateWallets
Belgium vs. Egypt1-1Draw2145$12.39M45$666.96K5.4%53
IR Iran vs. New Zealand2-2Draw4206$9.93M141$7.40M74.5%63
United States vs. Paraguay4-1United States5229$7.91M101$3.93M49.8%87
Sweden vs. Tunisia5-1Sweden6120$6.51M77$3.24M49.8%59
Netherlands vs. Japan2-2Draw4143$6.08M44$1.15M18.9%57
Australia vs. Türkiye2-0Australia2164$5.41M104$4.04M74.7%45
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay1-1Draw2142$5.16M99$4.05M78.5%42
Haiti vs. Scotland0-1Scotland1165$5.12M78$1.57M30.6%63
Argentina vs. Algeria3-0Argentina3139$4.69M72$2.74M58.4%62
Spain vs. Cabo Verde0-0Draw0210$4.31M47$989.70K23.0%119
France vs. Senegal3-1France4137$3.83M102$2.93M76.7%92
Germany vs. Curaçao7-1Germany8142$2.89M139$2.86M98.9%61
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina1-1Draw293$2.62M54$1.10M42.0%55
Korea Republic vs. Czechia2-1Korea Republic382$2.49M36$772.60K31.0%36
Brazil vs. Morocco1-1Draw2117$2.19M57$958.57K43.7%65
Mexico vs. South Africa2-0Mexico2126$2.13M84$1.54M72.1%58
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador1-0Côte d'Ivoire187$1.98M57$1.37M68.9%27
Qatar vs. Switzerland1-1Draw2104$1.75M36$470.32K26.8%60
Iraq vs. Norway1-4Norway559$1.45M49$1.33M91.6%45
Austria vs. Jordan3-1Austria435$703.39K21$341.75K48.6%28

Accounts Ranked by Pre-Match Buy Amount

AccountAccount TierPre-Match Buy GroupsPre-Match Buy AmountCorrect GroupsCorrect AmountAmount Hit RateMatches Covered
Diamond148$12.59M96$4.00M31.8%3
Gold145$7.29M145$7.29M100.0%2
Platinum46$4.80M0$00.0%2
Platinum82$4.49M23$2.48M55.2%4
Diamond19$3.94M2$260.00K6.6%3
Platinum28$3.09M10$1.03M33.5%5
Platinum57$2.96M0$00.0%1
Diamond39$2.12M28$1.69M79.7%14
Obsidian37$2.03M37$2.03M100.0%3
Obsidian151$1.93M105$1.42M73.3%16
16$1.85M15$1.53M82.5%4
Platinum14$1.59M5$763.65K47.9%8
Gold18$1.35M10$926.35K68.8%7
Obsidian107$1.26M22$169.52K13.5%8
Gold7$1.23M3$1.11M89.9%2

Candidate Wallets With Repeated Correct Calls

AccountAccount TierPre-Match PicksCorrect MatchesMatch-Level Hit RatePre-Match Buy Amount
Obsidian161168.8%$1.93M
Diamond14964.3%$2.12M
Gold12866.7%$374.24K
Gold7685.7%$310.87K
Silver7685.7%$73.09K
Diamond9666.7%$1.04M
Platinum10660.0%$340.06K
Platinum11654.5%$275.26K
12650.0%$631.90K
Silver12650.0%$125.00K
Obsidian15640.0%$495.76K
Bronze55100.0%$285.46K
Silver55100.0%$105.55K
Platinum55100.0%$82.04K
Silver6583.3%$254.34K

Largest Estimated PnL Rankings

The two tables below aggregate by account, match, market and purchased outcome. Split orders from the same account are combined into one row. Click an account name to open its public Polymarket profile.

PnL is estimated under a hold-to-resolution scenario: correct buys use estimated settlement payout, while wrong buys assume zero payout. This is not the account's final realized PnL because the account may have sold, added, hedged or traded related markets during the match.

Largest Correct Pre-Match BUY Positions

First TradeLast TradeAccountAccount TierMatchMarketOutcomeSplit OrdersAmountSettlement PayoutEstimated PnLROIAvg PriceScoreResult
2026-06-16T00:17:22+00:002026-06-16T00:59:24+00:00GoldIR Iran vs. New ZealandIR Iran to winNo109$6.47M$13.24M$6.77M104.7%0.492-2Draw
2026-06-14T01:57:10+00:002026-06-14T03:53:01+00:00DiamondAustralia vs. TürkiyeTürkiye to winNo83$3.75M$8.55M$4.80M127.9%0.442-0Australia
2026-06-15T21:19:51+00:002026-06-15T21:48:27+00:00PlatinumSaudi Arabia vs. UruguayUruguay to winNo9$1.65M$4.63M$2.98M180.4%0.361-1Draw
2026-06-15T01:47:15+00:002026-06-15T01:49:00+00:00GoldSweden vs. TunisiaSweden to winYes3$1.11M$2.17M$1.06M96.1%0.515-1Sweden
2026-06-14T20:57:13+00:002026-06-14T21:39:33+00:00Sweden vs. TunisiaSweden to winYes11$1.09M$2.10M$1.02M93.4%0.525-1Sweden
2026-06-14T04:48:51+00:002026-06-14T07:07:39+00:00GoldGermany vs. CuraçaoCuraçao to winNo5$941.27K$964.72K$23.44K2.5%0.987-1Germany
2026-06-12T21:15:40+00:002026-06-12T21:15:40+00:00GoldUnited States vs. ParaguayUnited States to winYes1$920.00K$2.00M$1.08M117.4%0.464-1United States
2026-06-17T00:55:44+00:002026-06-17T00:58:19+00:00ObsidianArgentina vs. AlgeriaArgentina to winYes14$887.07K$1.39M$498.89K56.2%0.643-0Argentina
2026-06-15T21:09:07+00:002026-06-15T21:47:19+00:00PlatinumSaudi Arabia vs. UruguaySaudi Arabia vs. Uruguay drawYes14$827.70K$3.52M$2.69M324.9%0.241-1Draw
2026-06-15T21:54:45+00:002026-06-15T21:59:30+00:00GoldSaudi Arabia vs. UruguayUruguay to winNo32$778.36K$2.13M$1.35M173.8%0.371-1Draw
2026-06-11T13:44:21+00:002026-06-11T13:46:21+00:00ObsidianMexico vs. South AfricaMexico to winYes17$581.00K$830.00K$249.00K42.9%0.702-0Mexico
2026-06-16T15:53:22+00:002026-06-16T15:57:52+00:00ObsidianFrance vs. SenegalFrance to winYes6$560.24K$834.87K$274.63K49.0%0.673-1France

Largest Wrong Pre-Match BUY Positions

First TradeLast TradeAccountAccount TierMatchMarketOutcomeSplit OrdersAmountSettlement PayoutEstimated PnLROIAvg PriceScoreResult
2026-06-15T17:17:27+00:002026-06-15T18:58:30+00:00DiamondBelgium vs. EgyptBelgium to winYes44$8.39M$0-$8.39M-100.0%0.661-1Draw
2026-06-14T18:44:03+00:002026-06-14T19:58:51+00:00PlatinumNetherlands vs. JapanNetherlands to winYes42$3.29M$0-$3.29M-100.0%0.472-2Draw
2026-06-13T23:36:40+00:002026-06-14T00:45:07+00:00PlatinumHaiti vs. ScotlandScotland to winNo41$2.31M$0-$2.31M-100.0%0.380-1Scotland
2026-06-15T01:32:13+00:002026-06-15T01:48:22+00:00DiamondSweden vs. TunisiaSweden to winNo7$2.23M$0-$2.23M-100.0%0.495-1Sweden
2026-06-15T16:22:36+00:002026-06-15T18:50:43+00:00PlatinumBelgium vs. EgyptBelgium to winYes4$1.51M$0-$1.51M-100.0%0.621-1Draw
2026-06-13T00:48:22+00:002026-06-13T00:59:33+00:00DiamondUnited States vs. ParaguayUnited States to winNo10$1.45M$0-$1.45M-100.0%0.534-1United States
2026-06-16T23:38:34+00:002026-06-16T23:41:58+00:00PlatinumArgentina vs. AlgeriaArgentina to winNo11$1.18M$0-$1.18M-100.0%0.343-0Argentina
2026-06-12T23:51:16+00:002026-06-13T00:59:58+00:00PlatinumUnited States vs. ParaguayUnited States vs. Paraguay drawYes42$1.15M$0-$1.15M-100.0%0.314-1United States
2026-06-12T01:54:25+00:002026-06-12T01:58:43+00:00PlatinumKorea Republic vs. CzechiaKorea Republic to winNo16$850.00K$0-$850.00K-100.0%0.632-1Korea Republic
2026-06-15T10:01:01+00:002026-06-15T10:01:01+00:00Belgium vs. EgyptBelgium to winYes3$496.00K$0-$496.00K-100.0%0.621-1Draw
2026-06-16T00:24:48+00:002026-06-16T00:24:49+00:00IR Iran vs. New ZealandIR Iran to winYes2$486.00K$0-$486.00K-100.0%0.542-2Draw
2026-06-17T00:14:50+00:002026-06-17T00:57:25+00:00ObsidianArgentina vs. AlgeriaArgentina to winNo37$474.51K$0-$474.51K-100.0%0.373-0Argentina

数据说明

本页将开赛前的买入方向视为市场预测信号:如果最终赛果与买入方向一致,记为买对;反之记为买错。

卖出交易更多反映止盈、止损、调仓或退出,不直接代表新的反向判断,因此不纳入赛前预测命中率。

开赛后的交易会受到实时比分、赔率变化和临近结算影响,本页将其作为赛中资金流动观察,不用于评价赛前判断。

已结束比赛赛果与进球

球队A球队B比分赛果总进球大于2.5球大于3.5球双方进球赛果来源
墨西哥南非2-0墨西哥2ESPN 赛程/赛果
韩国捷克2-1韩国3ESPN 赛程/赛果
加拿大波黑1-1平局2ESPN 赛程/赛果
美国巴拉圭4-1美国5ESPN 赛程/赛果
卡塔尔瑞士1-1平局2ESPN、Yahoo Sports、Bleacher Report
巴西摩洛哥1-1平局2ESPN、Yahoo Sports、Bleacher Report
海地苏格兰0-1苏格兰1ESPN、Bleacher Report
澳大利亚土耳其2-0澳大利亚2SBS、Bleacher Report
德国库拉索7-1德国8FIFA、Guardian、Fox 赛后信息
荷兰日本2-2平局4Fox、SBNation 赛后汇总
科特迪瓦厄瓜多尔1-0科特迪瓦1Fox、SBNation 赛后汇总
瑞典突尼斯5-1瑞典6Fox、SBNation 赛后汇总
西班牙佛得角0-0平局0ESPN、SBS、Al Jazeera 赛况
比利时埃及1-1平局2ESPN、SBS、Guardian
沙特阿拉伯乌拉圭1-1平局2ESPN、SBS
伊朗新西兰2-2平局4ESPN、SBS
法国塞内加尔3-1法国4ESPN、Guardian
伊拉克挪威1-4挪威5ESPN、Guardian
阿根廷阿尔及利亚3-0阿根廷3Guardian、NBC Sports
奥地利约旦3-1奥地利4ABC、Fox Sports、Guardian

大额资金准确率一览

比赛比分赛果总进球赛前买入组数赛前买入金额买对组数买对金额金额命中率钱包数
比利时 对 埃及1-1平局2145$12.39M45$666.96K5.4%53
伊朗 对 新西兰2-2平局4206$9.93M141$7.40M74.5%63
美国 对 巴拉圭4-1美国5229$7.91M101$3.93M49.8%87
瑞典 对 突尼斯5-1瑞典6120$6.51M77$3.24M49.8%59
荷兰 对 日本2-2平局4143$6.08M44$1.15M18.9%57
澳大利亚 对 土耳其2-0澳大利亚2164$5.41M104$4.04M74.7%45
沙特阿拉伯 对 乌拉圭1-1平局2142$5.16M99$4.05M78.5%42
海地 对 苏格兰0-1苏格兰1165$5.12M78$1.57M30.6%63
阿根廷 对 阿尔及利亚3-0阿根廷3139$4.69M72$2.74M58.4%62
西班牙 对 佛得角0-0平局0210$4.31M47$989.70K23.0%119
法国 对 塞内加尔3-1法国4137$3.83M102$2.93M76.7%92
德国 对 库拉索7-1德国8142$2.89M139$2.86M98.9%61
加拿大 对 波黑1-1平局293$2.62M54$1.10M42.0%55
韩国 对 捷克2-1韩国382$2.49M36$772.60K31.0%36
巴西 对 摩洛哥1-1平局2117$2.19M57$958.57K43.7%65
墨西哥 对 南非2-0墨西哥2126$2.13M84$1.54M72.1%58
科特迪瓦 对 厄瓜多尔1-0科特迪瓦187$1.98M57$1.37M68.9%27
卡塔尔 对 瑞士1-1平局2104$1.75M36$470.32K26.8%60
伊拉克 对 挪威1-4挪威559$1.45M49$1.33M91.6%45
奥地利 对 约旦3-1奥地利435$703.39K21$341.75K48.6%28

按账户看:赛前买入金额排行

账户账户等级赛前买入组数赛前买入金额买对组数买对金额金额命中率覆盖比赛数
Diamond148$12.59M96$4.00M31.8%3
Gold145$7.29M145$7.29M100.0%2
Platinum46$4.80M0$00.0%2
Platinum82$4.49M23$2.48M55.2%4
Diamond19$3.94M2$260.00K6.6%3
Platinum28$3.09M10$1.03M33.5%5
Platinum57$2.96M0$00.0%1
Diamond39$2.12M28$1.69M79.7%14
Obsidian37$2.03M37$2.03M100.0%3
Obsidian151$1.93M105$1.42M73.3%16
16$1.85M15$1.53M82.5%4
Platinum14$1.59M5$763.65K47.9%8
Gold18$1.35M10$926.35K68.8%7
Obsidian107$1.26M22$169.52K13.5%8
Gold7$1.23M3$1.11M89.9%2

连续选对的候选钱包

账户账户等级赛前参与比赛数方向正确比赛数比赛级命中率赛前买入金额
Obsidian161168.8%$1.93M
Diamond14964.3%$2.12M
Gold12866.7%$374.24K
Gold7685.7%$310.87K
Silver7685.7%$73.09K
Diamond9666.7%$1.04M
Platinum10660.0%$340.06K
Platinum11654.5%$275.26K
12650.0%$631.90K
Silver12650.0%$125.00K
Obsidian15640.0%$495.76K
Bronze55100.0%$285.46K
Silver55100.0%$105.55K
Platinum55100.0%$82.04K
Silver6583.3%$254.34K

最大盈亏排行

下面两张表按同一账户、同一比赛、同一盘口和同一买入方向聚合;同一账户拆成多笔下单的交易会合并展示。点击账户名称可查看其 Polymarket 公开主页。

这里的盈亏为“持有至结算”的情景估算:买对时按结算回款估算,买错时按回款为 0 估算。它不等同于账户最终真实盈亏,因为账户可能在赛中卖出、补仓或通过其他盘口对冲。

赛前买对金额最大的聚合仓位

首笔时间末笔时间账户账户等级比赛盘口结果份额拆单笔数金额结算回款预估盈亏ROI均价比分赛果
2026-06-16T00:17:22+00:002026-06-16T00:59:24+00:00Gold伊朗 对 新西兰伊朗 获胜109$6.47M$13.24M$6.77M104.7%0.492-2平局
2026-06-14T01:57:10+00:002026-06-14T03:53:01+00:00Diamond澳大利亚 对 土耳其土耳其 获胜83$3.75M$8.55M$4.80M127.9%0.442-0澳大利亚
2026-06-15T21:19:51+00:002026-06-15T21:48:27+00:00Platinum沙特阿拉伯 对 乌拉圭乌拉圭 获胜9$1.65M$4.63M$2.98M180.4%0.361-1平局
2026-06-15T01:47:15+00:002026-06-15T01:49:00+00:00Gold瑞典 对 突尼斯瑞典 获胜3$1.11M$2.17M$1.06M96.1%0.515-1瑞典
2026-06-14T20:57:13+00:002026-06-14T21:39:33+00:00瑞典 对 突尼斯瑞典 获胜11$1.09M$2.10M$1.02M93.4%0.525-1瑞典
2026-06-14T04:48:51+00:002026-06-14T07:07:39+00:00Gold德国 对 库拉索库拉索 获胜5$941.27K$964.72K$23.44K2.5%0.987-1德国
2026-06-12T21:15:40+00:002026-06-12T21:15:40+00:00Gold美国 对 巴拉圭美国 获胜1$920.00K$2.00M$1.08M117.4%0.464-1美国
2026-06-17T00:55:44+00:002026-06-17T00:58:19+00:00Obsidian阿根廷 对 阿尔及利亚阿根廷 获胜14$887.07K$1.39M$498.89K56.2%0.643-0阿根廷
2026-06-15T21:09:07+00:002026-06-15T21:47:19+00:00Platinum沙特阿拉伯 对 乌拉圭沙特阿拉伯 对 乌拉圭 平局14$827.70K$3.52M$2.69M324.9%0.241-1平局
2026-06-15T21:54:45+00:002026-06-15T21:59:30+00:00Gold沙特阿拉伯 对 乌拉圭乌拉圭 获胜32$778.36K$2.13M$1.35M173.8%0.371-1平局
2026-06-11T13:44:21+00:002026-06-11T13:46:21+00:00Obsidian墨西哥 对 南非墨西哥 获胜17$581.00K$830.00K$249.00K42.9%0.702-0墨西哥
2026-06-16T15:53:22+00:002026-06-16T15:57:52+00:00Obsidian法国 对 塞内加尔法国 获胜6$560.24K$834.87K$274.63K49.0%0.673-1法国

赛前买错金额最大的聚合仓位

首笔时间末笔时间账户账户等级比赛盘口结果份额拆单笔数金额结算回款预估盈亏ROI均价比分赛果
2026-06-15T17:17:27+00:002026-06-15T18:58:30+00:00Diamond比利时 对 埃及比利时 获胜44$8.39M$0-$8.39M-100.0%0.661-1平局
2026-06-14T18:44:03+00:002026-06-14T19:58:51+00:00Platinum荷兰 对 日本荷兰 获胜42$3.29M$0-$3.29M-100.0%0.472-2平局
2026-06-13T23:36:40+00:002026-06-14T00:45:07+00:00Platinum海地 对 苏格兰苏格兰 获胜41$2.31M$0-$2.31M-100.0%0.380-1苏格兰
2026-06-15T01:32:13+00:002026-06-15T01:48:22+00:00Diamond瑞典 对 突尼斯瑞典 获胜7$2.23M$0-$2.23M-100.0%0.495-1瑞典
2026-06-15T16:22:36+00:002026-06-15T18:50:43+00:00Platinum比利时 对 埃及比利时 获胜4$1.51M$0-$1.51M-100.0%0.621-1平局
2026-06-13T00:48:22+00:002026-06-13T00:59:33+00:00Diamond美国 对 巴拉圭美国 获胜10$1.45M$0-$1.45M-100.0%0.534-1美国
2026-06-16T23:38:34+00:002026-06-16T23:41:58+00:00Platinum阿根廷 对 阿尔及利亚阿根廷 获胜11$1.18M$0-$1.18M-100.0%0.343-0阿根廷
2026-06-12T23:51:16+00:002026-06-13T00:59:58+00:00Platinum美国 对 巴拉圭美国 对 巴拉圭 平局42$1.15M$0-$1.15M-100.0%0.314-1美国
2026-06-12T01:54:25+00:002026-06-12T01:58:43+00:00Platinum韩国 对 捷克韩国 获胜16$850.00K$0-$850.00K-100.0%0.632-1韩国
2026-06-15T10:01:01+00:002026-06-15T10:01:01+00:00比利时 对 埃及比利时 获胜3$496.00K$0-$496.00K-100.0%0.621-1平局
2026-06-16T00:24:48+00:002026-06-16T00:24:49+00:00伊朗 对 新西兰伊朗 获胜2$486.00K$0-$486.00K-100.0%0.542-2平局
2026-06-17T00:14:50+00:002026-06-17T00:57:25+00:00Obsidian阿根廷 对 阿尔及利亚阿根廷 获胜37$474.51K$0-$474.51K-100.0%0.373-0阿根廷